AFL Player Props: Round 2 2026: Best Trends to Watch

Round 2 of the 2026 AFL season has a pair of matches worth targeting on the props market. Richmond host Gold Coast at the MCG on Saturday, and North Melbourne travel to Perth to face West Coast on Sunday. We’ve run both fixtures through the Betsniper Implied EV tool to find where the bookmakers’ prices don’t match the historical data — and this week, there are five worth backing.

Colby McKercher 22+ Disposals — 9/10 L10 @ $1.93 Sportsbet

McKercher was the No. 2 pick in the 2023 AFL Draft, and in two seasons at North Melbourne he’s already established himself as one of the competition’s best young ball-winners. He averaged 23.1 disposals across 23 games in 2025.

Nine of his last ten games have cleared 22 disposals. His L10 reads 34, 32, 29, 22, 32, 36, 27, 29, 23 — and then 11 in Round 1. That most recent blip is the only thing keeping Sportsbet from paying a shorter price. McKercher was coming off an injury so played limited game time, but nine consecutive 22+ games before that tells you where the floor really is.

Crucially, North Melbourne head to Optus Stadium as $1.47 FAVOURITES (13.5-point line). When North are the dominant team with the ball, McKercher is the engine room. Sportsbet have this at $1.93 — roughly 52% implied probability. The L10 says 90%. That gap is what you’re exploiting here.

Toby Nankervis 14+ Disposals — 9/10 L10 @ $1.66 Sportsbet

Nankervis is in his fifth consecutive season as Richmond captain — one of the most underrated leaders in the competition. The 29-year-old ruck has been a cornerstone of Richmond’s rebuild, averaging 15.3 disposals per game across his Tigers career and 15.8 in 2025 (4.7 clearances, 3.8 tackles).

His L10 disposal numbers are remarkably consistent: 17, 18, 18, 17, 18, 11, 15, 21, 14, 21 (oldest to most recent). The lone miss was 11, well over a month ago. Since then, four straight between 14 and 21. A ruck who averages 15.8 disposals and hits 14+ in 9 of 10 games, priced at 60% implied probability. That’s a systematic market error.

Yes, Gold Coast are enormous $1.12 favourites with a 35.5-point line — this is one of the most lopsided matchups of the round. But that’s almost irrelevant for a ruck’s disposal count. Nankervis doesn’t need Richmond to win to rack up disposals. He contests every ruck contest, roves the stoppages, and wins the ball regardless of the scoreline. MCG is his home ground. Betdeluxe matches Sportsbet at $1.66 if you need to split across accounts.

Jordan Dawson 6+ Tackles — 8/10 L10 @ $1.71 Sportsbet

Jordan Dawson is Adelaide's captain and one of the most contested midfielders in the competition. He tackles, he fights, he doesn't stop. That identity shows up in the data in a big way.

His L10 tackle numbers: 6, 6, 4, 7, 7, 14, 12, 10, 5, 8. Eight of those ten cleared the 6-tackle mark — including a 14-tackle monster that shows what Dawson is capable of when the contest heats up. Over 26 games the hit rate sits at 85%. That is not a hot patch — that is who he is.

This week Adelaide face Western Bulldogs — a physical, contested-game team that plays exactly the style Dawson thrives against. Expect a proper fight in the middle, which is precisely when his tackle numbers spike. At $1.71, the market implies roughly 58% probability. The data says closer to 85%. That gap is where the value lives.

Luke Parker 90+ AFL Fantasy Points — 8/10 L10 @ $1.76 Sportsbet

In round 1 Parker was unleashed in a new role in defense - which saw an increase in his marks, kick-ins and uncontested possession output.

His four most recent games are the story: 100, 107, 102, 116. Four straight well over 90. The two misses (61 and 48) sit in the middle of the L10 and are the clear outlier. His floor when active and fit is north of 94. The most recent four-game stretch makes $1.76 look almost generous.

North Melbourne are $1.47 favourites at Optus Stadium, playing as the team expected to control the game. Ladbrokes also has this at $1.75 if you need to shop around.

Ben Long 2+ Goals — 7/10 L10 @ $2.25 Betr

Gold Coast’s profile: $1.12 market favourites, 35.5-point line. When a team is expected to win by six goals, their forward line gets a lot of scoring chances — and Long is one of their key threats up forward.

L10 goal tally (oldest to most recent): 0, 4, 2, 3, 2, 3, 2, 0, 2, 1. Seven times he’s hit 2+. The two misses are bookended at different points in the stretch — it’s not a recent form slump. His most recent game was 1 goal (miss), but the previous game was 2 (hit), and the game before that was 0 (miss), with 3 hits in the four games before that.

The value here is pure math. At $2.25, you need to hit this less than 45% of the time to break even. Long hits it 70% of the time over L10. In a game where Gold Coast are expected to pump the scoreboard against a rebuilding Richmond side, the conditions are about as favourable as they get. Unibet and TABtouch are close at $2.23 if Betr limits you.

Find These Trends Yourself

All five of these picks came from the Betsniper AFL Prop Tool — search any player, set your line, and see exactly where the bookmakers are mispricing the data. The Implied EV Tool also surfaces the highest-value props across all markets automatically.