AFL Player Props — Round 3 2026: Best Trends to Watch

We've run the round through the Betsniper Implied EV tool to find where the data is sitting well ahead of the price.

Scott Pendlebury 21+ Disposals — 9/10 L10 @ $2.23 Sportsbet

Pendlebury is 38 years old and still one of the most reliable disposal-getters in the competition — not sentiment, data. His L10 reads: 16, 26, 23, 21, 24, 27, 22, 21, 22, 28. Nine of ten over 20.

This week Collingwood host GWS at Marvel. If GWS can't generate clean ball at clearances, Collingwood's experienced mids control the game, and Pendlebury accumulates. Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe are also expected back for Collingwood after two rounds out with calf injuries, which shores up their backline and gives the midfield licence to push. At $2.23 you're getting better than even money on a 90% L10 trend. Betdeluxe matches Sportsbet at $2.23.

Colby McKercher 22+ Disposals — 8/10 L10 @ $1.85 Ladbrokes

Running McKercher is North Melbourne's ball-winning engine off half-back and into the midfield. His L10: 20, 11, 23, 29, 27, 36, 32, 22, 29, 32. Eight of ten over 21 disposals. The two misses — 20 and 11 — came in games where he was recovering from injury and had reduced TOG. When given licence, the ceiling is 36.

North face Essendon at Marvel on Saturday night. The Bombers are $2.45 underdogs and have looked like traffic cones to start the season — North are the $1.53 favourites expected to control the game. When North dominate the clearances, McKercher accumulates. Eight from ten at $1.85 is a solid return on a player whose role is unchanged and whose ceiling is elite.

Luke Pedlar 1+ Goals — 9/10 L10 @ $1.83 Pointsbet

Adelaide's young small forward has been building one of the most consistent goal-scoring records in the competition. His L10: 0, 1, 1, 3, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2. Nine from ten. The only blank was a high-pressure defensive game — the exception, not the rule.

The team news makes this sharper. Taylor Walker is rested. Jordan Dawson (calf) is out. Rory Laird (calf) is out. Callum Ah Chee is gone for six weeks. That's the captain and two of their best midfielders missing — Adelaide's ball movement into the forward 50 is going to look different, and Pedlar becomes a more prominent target as the secondary forwards pick up the slack. Straightforward value.

Riley Thilthorpe 2+ Goals — 9/10 L10 @ $1.79 Sportsbet

The goal tallies tell the story: 2, 3, 3, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4, 3, 2. Nine of ten at 2+. The single miss is 1 goal — he hasn't been goalless in any of his last ten games. The market is pricing 2+ goals at roughly 55% implied probability. The L10 says 90%. That's the gap you're targeting.

Walker's absence turns this from a good bet into an excellent one. With no senior key forward alongside him, Thilthorpe becomes one of Adelaide's main marking targets in the forward 50 alongside Fogarty. Every contested mark in the square, every set-shot opportunity — it all goes through him now. The goal-sharing that might have split his output disappears. At $1.79 Sportsbet and Betdeluxe, you're getting close to even money on a player who has scored 2+ goals in nine of his last ten games and walks into this one as the undisputed #1 forward.

Josh Dunkley 105+ AFL Fantasy Points — 8/10 L10 @ $2.35 Sportsbet

Running this one back as well. Dunkley is one of Brisbane's premier midfielders and his fantasy numbers this season have been elite. His L10: 108, 73, 109, 131, 147, 136, 91, 132, 113, 112. Eight of ten over 104. The two misses — 73 and 91 — came in games where Brisbane were in blowout territory and managed game time in the final quarter. That's not a ceiling issue, it's a scoreboard issue.

St Kilda at Marvel on Saturday is a genuine contest. Brisbane are $1.55 favourites but the line isn't enormous — this is a game they're expected to win, not blow out. In competitive games, Dunkley plays unrestricted midfield time, and the numbers show what happens: three scores over 130 in the recent stretch. Sportsbet is the only book at value — $2.35 against Ladbrokes' $1.68. That's a significant price gap, and Sportsbet has the right end of it. Eight from ten at $2.35 is a strong edge.

Find These Trends Yourself

All five picks came from the Betsniper AFL Prop Tool and the Implied EV tool. Search any player, set your market and line, and the L10 hit rates surface instantly alongside every bookmaker's current price. The gaps between the data and the market price are there every week — it's just a matter of finding them.

If you would like some help, we are offering free strategy sessions where we show you how to do this as well! Book in a call today.