How To Find Value With Dabble Pick'Em Lines

We can use Dabble Pick'Em to find value in two ways. We can find value in mis-priced Dabble lines. Or find markets that are significantly over-priced from the Dabble line.

We recently pushed Pick’Em lines as one of the options on our odds screen. Although these bets can’t be taken as singles, they can be used as a data-point to help you identify potential value bets.

If you do not know how Pick’Em works, check out our blog where we explain how the product works

In this article we will explain why these lines can show you where there is value as well as practical tips as how you can actually find these value bets.

Why are Pick’Em lines valuable data?

When bookmakers provide both over and under odds for props, we can calculate the true probability by removing their margin. Dabble Pick’Em lines are effectively set at ~50/50, which makes them useful as a market-clearing reference — particularly for sports like AFL and NRL where many bookmakers only offer one-sided (over-only) markets.

Three ways to find value with Pick’Em lines

1. Play Pick’Em legs that are mis-priced

Using the odds screen, compare the Pick’Em line to other bookmaker lines. When the Pick’Em line is lower than the market, you’re effectively getting extra value on the over leg. This is especially true for low-variance markets where even a half-point difference in line is significant.

2. Find over bets that are value compared to the Pick’Em line

Pick’Em lines imply ~50% probability (equivalent to 2.00 odds, before Dabble’s margin is applied). Look for over bets where the line is the same or lower than the Pick’Em line AND the odds are significantly above 2.00. That gap is where genuine EV lives.

Example: Nick Daicos fantasy Pick’Em line was 112.5. Pointsbet was offering 2.35 on the 110+ market. Assuming true odds of 2.00 based on the Pick’Em reference, that’s 17.5% EV — plus you’re getting an easier line.

Check out this video for the full breakdown of this Daicos bet.

3. Identify Pick’Em legs using bookmaker over/under prices

Use other bookmakers’ two-sided markets to validate Pick’Em legs. If the market average no-vig price is below the Pick’Em threshold (1.867 for 3-leg), the leg is positive EV. This is exactly what the Pick’Em EV tool does automatically.

The trap to avoid

You cannot infer value from over-only market prices alone. Bookmakers can apply unlimited margin to one-sided markets, so a high average over price doesn’t mean the Pick’Em line is value — it likely just means all the over prices are bad. Always use two-sided markets or the Pick’Em line itself as your reference point.