Arbitrage betting
What You Need To Know Before You Play Arbitrage Bets On Soccer
Arbitrage betting presents a risk-free opportunity to make money, but due to unique betting rules for soccer we need to be careful when implementing this strategy
Arbitrage betting can be one of the best ways to reliably make money from betting by eliminating all risks. However, there are some rare circumstances where you could lose money on soccer arbs specifically, due to different settlement rules across Australian bookmakers.
If you have not already, check out our ultimate guide to arbitrage betting.
What are the settlement risks for soccer arbs?
Two main risks are unique to soccer:
1. Player not starting. In order to place a soccer arb, you’ll almost always need to use Unibet or Tabtouch as the under side (they’re the only Australian books offering under markets on soccer props). Both void bets when a player doesn’t start and comes on as a substitute. But most over-only bookmakers (Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, Dabble, Betr, etc.) settle the bet as active regardless. If a player starts on the bench and comes on at the 60th minute, your under with Unibet is voided but your over is active — and that player now has limited time to hit the line.
2. Different data sources. While most Australian bookmakers use Opta to settle soccer props, some use different sources (Playup uses Whoscored, Pointsbet uses multiple sources). There is a small but real chance two bookmakers settle the same stat differently, leaving both sides of your arb as losers.
Bookmaker settlement rules summary
Bookmaker | Data source | Player comes on as sub |
|---|---|---|
Unibet / Tabtouch | Opta | Bet voided |
Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, Betr, Dabble, TAB | Opta | Bet active |
Playup | Whoscored | Bet active |
Pointsbet | Multiple sources | Bet active |
Best practices for soccer arb betting
The safest approach is to wait until lineups are confirmed (usually 1 hour before kick-off) before placing soccer arbs. If you want to bet earlier, use Rotowire to check predicted lineups and the Betsniper EPL prop tool to see if your chosen player has been starting regularly. If betting before lineup confirmation, consider placing your over bet with a bookmaker that offers cash-out as a fallback option. Keep stakes smaller on pre-lineup soccer arbs given the additional risk. For new punters, avoid soccer arbs entirely until you’re comfortable with the general arb process first.
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I've been betting seriously for over a decade, ever since I realised you can actually make money from sports betting. I studied Economics and Finance at the University of Melbourne and funded my entire time there through betting. Over the years I've become obsessed with building tools and taking a mathematical, strategic approach to the markets. I've poured that experience into building Betsniper - the ultimate companion tool for the smart punter. I now spend my time educating others on how to think about betting strategically, discovering new strategies and ultimately making as much money as possible from sports betting.
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