AFL Player Props — Round 3 2026: Best Trends to Watch

In this article, we have analysed every prop for Round 5 and extracted opportunities to help you find value. We specifically look at historical data and match-up. Every play below was pulled directly from the AFL Prop Tool.

Griffin Logue 12+ Disposals — 9/10 L10 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

The most overlooked play on the board this round. Logue's L10 reads 14, 14, 16, 13, 12, 13, 17, 12, 13, 10 — nine of ten clear at 12+, including a 17-disposal high. The single miss is a 10. This is a metronome.

The matchup angle confirms it. Brisbane sit at 6th most generous to key defenders for disposals — squarely soft tier. Brisbane bomb the ball forward early and Logue's intercept role at the back of the North Melbourne defence is built to feast in those exact conditions.

Sportsbet's $1.92 is the standout — the next best book sits level with Betdeluxe at $1.92 and most others are tighter. $1.92 on a 9/10 hit rate against a top-six soft matchup is the kind of line that disappears fast.

Lachlan Cowan 14+ Disposals — 8/10 L10 @ $1.67 Sportsbet

The Carlton young defender has quietly become a reliable rebounder in their backline. Cowan's L10 reads 13, 16, 14, 22, 20, 22, 16, 12, 16, 22 — eight of ten clear at 14+, with the only misses a 13 and a 12 (neither catastrophic). Three 22-disposal performances in the sample show the genuine ceiling

Adelaide sit at rank 10 against general defenders for disposals — squarely neutral, not a matchup that's going to lock him down. Carlton's structure feeds Cowan uncontested kicks out of defence, and against an Adelaide forward press that hasn't been turning the ball over consistently he's got room to run and rack.

Sportsbet's $1.67 is the standout for an 80% hit rate — sharp pricing on a player whose role and form are pointing in exactly the right direction for the round opener.

Marcus Bontempelli 30+ Disposals — 7/10 L10 @ $2.47 Sportsbet

The juiciest big-line play of the round. The Bont's L10: 35, 30, 33, 19, 33, 31, 33, 27, 35, 24 — averaging 30.0 disposals with three 33+ outings and two 35-touch monsters. The single 19 is the only legitimate miss; six of ten are 30 or better.

Hawthorn sit at rank 10 — neutral territory, not a midfield that's been shutting Bont's ball-magnet profile down. At $2.47 you're getting near-2.5x on a player whose median outcome is above the line. The hit rate undersells the play because the line is sitting right at his average — when the variance shakes out, this clears more often than 70%.

Sportsbet and Betdeluxe are paying the standout $2.47, with Pointsbet at $2.35 and TAB Touch at $2.38. The line is ripe for a market correction.

Aaron Naughton 3+ Goals — 7/10 L10 @ $2.35 Ladbrokes

Best multi-goal play of the round at the right price. Naughton's goal sequence: 3, 3, 6, 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, 7, 2 — averaging 3.8 goals per game with two 5-goal bags, a 6 and a 7-goal explosion in his last ten.

Hawthorn rank 6th most generous to key forwards on goals — soft tier. Naughton's role as the Bulldogs' primary big-bodied forward is the ideal profile to attack this matchup, and $2.35 on a player averaging nearly 4 goals/game is overpriced.

Ladbrokes leads at $2.35, with TAB Touch and Unibet at $2.30 and TAB at $2.20. Sportsbet drops to $2.18, so this is a clear line-shop play.

Kai Lohmann 2+ Goals — 8/10 L10 @ $1.88 Global Book

Lohmann has gone 2+ in 8 of his last 10: 4, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 2. The two single-goal misses are the only blemishes; everything else is at least a pair, with a four-goal explosion in his most recent outing.

He's the in-form Brisbane small forward and they've been targeting him deep inside 50. North Melbourne sit at rank 12 against general forwards for goals — squarely neutral, not a matchup that shuts him down. The recent 4-goal bag is the exclamation point on a player at the absolute peak of his role.

Global Book offering $1.88, then Ladbrokes and TAB at $1.70 with Sportsbet/Betdeluxe at $1.68. $1.88 on an 8/10 hit rate from a forward currently in the form of his career is a play you're happy to back hard.